The following is an excerpt from our January issue:

By: Jonathan Lindberg

In the lobby of the Peabody Hotel, Mayor Willie Herenton is holding court. Like most conversations about the Mayor, with the Mayor, this Mayor controls the conversation. “See, you have to understand something about me,” he says to the small circle, pointing out a leading local pastor and tapping him on the chest. “I am a man of faith. That is how I think. You have to consider that when I make statements.”

Herenton looks at the pastor, but really he is speaking to Jackson Baker, the omnipresent political reporter for the Memphis Flyer, who just happens to be standing at his side.

“See, I say that God has chosen me to lead this city, and they (the media) want to criticize me, cut me down.” Baker protests this accusation, semantics over the word criticize, but Herenton steps over him, into the circle, and takes the pastor by the shoulder. “Now you understand what I’m saying when I say that God has chosen me, because we are both men of faith. God gave me a vision for this city. God anoints certain people for certain times. That’s in the Bible. Am I right?”

The pastor nods and Herenton lets his shoulder free. Baker finally gets his chance to speak, defending himself to the pastor who has become the vehicle of conversation. While Baker talks, Herenton considers the faces around the lobby, seemingly unconcerned with the critical view of the press. “There will always be naysayers,” Herenton says, interrupting Baker. “I know I have enemies. I know they are out to get me. I just have more important things to consider.”

And then, as if to illustrate his point, Herenton looks back over the circle, taking in the faces that have gathered around the hotel lobby.

When considering the 2007 race for Memphis Mayor (October 4), the Press, who have long quarreled with Herenton, are not the only ones standing in the way of an unprecedented fifth term. Add to that a growing list of public officials, business, and religious leaders that consider Willie Herenton to be at his most vulnerable this time around.

They have their sights set on this Mayor and feel like this is the year he can finally be beat.

That list of declared and potential candidates would include, Carol Chumney, City Council, Myron Lowry, City Council, Jack Sammons, City Council, John Vergos, former City Councilman, John Willingham, the former County Commissioner who lost to Herenton in 2003 but is eyeing a rematch, Ron Belz, Chief Operating Officer of Belz Enterprises, Herman Morris, former President and CEO of MLG&W who was fired by Herenton during a very public dispute, Dwight Montgomery, head of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, Calvin Anderson, Vice President at BlueCross BlueShield, and Harold Ford Jr., former U.S. Congressman, who has done everything to dissuade rumors of his candidacy.

That is the list so far, and it is only January.

What is interesting about this particular group is that most of the names mentioned have been involved in some sort of public dispute with Herenton over the past four years. Draw a line between most possible scenarios, and you are bound to stumble on old scores waiting to be settled. Political ambitions aside, this race, much like the 1999 race between Herenton and Joe Ford, is bound to get personal.

In the early stages, with most potential candidates waiting to consider the field, two particular names seem to be gathering the most buzz, Carol Chumney and Herman Morris. Both have endured their fair share of public and private clashes with Mayor Herenton. Both have been dismissed by Herenton as “wannabes”.

However, when it comes to opposition candidates, Chumney and Morris seem to offer the most complete package from the list of potentials, bringing to the table a base of supporters, along with a proven track-record of public service. Despite the claims by Herenton that neither are prepared for the job, both seem to have paid their dues.

Both Chumney and Morris seem very intent on running. So far, Chumney is the only opposition candidate to declare.

Chumney, 45, has long been viewed as an aggressive and ambitious politician. Four years ago, she won a heated City Council race defeating both George Flinn and Jim Strickland. Chumney quickly became one of the most outspoken and media-savvy members on the Council, utilizing the short-quote – quick blunt criticisms that always seemed to make their way to the nightly news. Her direct and often sharp dissent from Herenton made her an immediate target of the Mayor, whom she at one point accused of hurling “veiled threats”.

The culmination of the feud between Herenton and the City Council took place during a 2004 New Years Day Prayer Breakfast hosted by the Mayor. There Herenton lashed out at the City Council, declaring that “enemies are out to get me.” It did not take much imagination to put Chumney near the top of such a list.

Considering relations between the Mayor and City Council, it was little surprise when in August 2006, Chumney informally declared her intention to run for mayor. The surprise was in the timing, during one of her casual Coffee with Carol sessions, a sort-of-town-hall meeting. Rather than wait for the field to fill, Chumney threw-her-hat-in-the-ring fourteen months before the election, while the rest of Shelby County was just beginning to tune into the Corker-Ford Senate race that November.

Chumney insists she is not at all concerned with who gets into the race and who stays out. She is a politician running to win. Still, the implied strategy by declaring first, fourteen months early, is to discourage lesser-known candidates from entering the race, in hopes of avoiding a larger fragmentation of the vote.

An ambitious move, tailored to the Chumney style.

But Chumney was not the only one taking aim at Herenton during the summer of 2006. Thaddeus Matthews, King of political blogging in Memphis, spent his summer gathering signatures for a proposed initiative to recall Herenton. Though the recall effort came up short, securing roughly half (45,000) of the required signatures, the effort did attract a flurry of media coverage and provided Matthews with larger platform to express his dissatisfaction with this Mayor.

It also seemed to comment on a much broader idea, that is, the growing discontent among the strong minority of voters who opposed Herenton during his 1999 & 2003 elections.

Councilman Myron Lowry put it like this. “The recall said two things. One, there were many who were dissatisfied. Two, there were not enough who were dissatisfied.”

Clear and straight and to-the-point. In simple terms, these are the two ideas any rumored candidate, like Lowry, must consider before declaring. Yes, Herenton is more vulnerable than during the last election, having lost a part of his base among the black community. However, is he vulnerable enough to actually be beat?

“Herenton is no dummy,” says John Willingham, the former County Commissioner who ran against Herenton the last time around. “He’s already got thirty-percent of the vote in-the-bag. He still has his turf. He is hoping for five or six candidates to get in this race, to fragment the vote. That will allow him to win. Mark-my-words, Herenton will get his base to the polls.”

This concept, Herenton as mayor for life, has been pushed and pondered by political observers and political columnists, like John Branston of the Flyer, as recently as 2004. The idea also helped earn Herenton the nickname of King Willie.

However few are saying mayor for life this time around. A large group of Press and pundits are hoping this time Herenton is put out of office. Observers view him as vulnerable. Still, every time Herenton has been underestimated, he has always been the last one standing.

“Why is that?” Herenton asks with a slight smile on his face. “They always seem to underestimate me.”

One reason seems to be Herenton himself. This Mayor remains the most polarizing figure in Memphis politics. He is also the most complex and complicated of our politicians.

“To like me, you have to feel good about yourself,” Herenton says. “Sure I have critics, but my critics are opportunistic. They have nothing new to offer. See, I know who I am. I am uniquely different.”

Perhaps the most common description you will here about Herenton is that of arrogance. It is a trait Herenton almost seems to perpetuate. But to accuse Herenton of not being self-aware, of a blindness to this perception, is to miss the man altogether. Herenton is comfortable in his own skin. To Herenton, confidence and arrogance are one-in-the-same.

Outside the door to his office hangs a picture of Herenton as a young man, sharply dressed, standing on the stoop of the rundown tenements where he grew up, fatherless. Leaning against a pole, Herenton shows that familiar confidence, hands in pockets, the young LeMoyne-Owen graduate paying homage to his childhood struggle. It was the city of his youth, racially divided and marching toward equality, that shaped Herenton above all else.

“See, I have never believed in white superiority,” he says, leaning back in his chair. “I have never felt inferior to anyone else due to skin color. I am a self-made man. I am equal to everyone.”

That Herenton was the first black mayor will only be part of his legacy. Many who supported Herenton during his defeat of Dick Hackett (1991) are gone, or have shifted their support. It is the language of Herenton, be it confidence or arrogance, that will be his legacy. That Herenton maintains a built-in base, sixteen years later, demonstrates the voice of empowerment he gives to some, in a city still struggling toward racial equality.

As this race takes shape over the summer and fall, the opposition must find the issues to define this race. At the time of this writing, the Commercial Appeal reported the one-hundred-and-fifty-eighth homicide in Memphis during 2006. The Mayor is promising more cops on the street to combat crime, but will raise property taxes to pay for them.

While the Memphis population (as well as the Memphis tax base) decreases, surrounding counties like DeSoto and Fayette are enjoying booms. Despite recent reports of budget surpluses, Memphis itself remains mired in debt.

Much of the debt can be traced to a sinking public school system, held up for now by the leadership of Superintendent Carol Johnson.

Memphis remains overwhelmed by poverty, most prominently among the poorer black neighborhoods.

In regard to downtown revitalization, Herenton has overseen numerous building projects which have ended in disarray, including the Pyramid, which now sits empty, the Cannon Center, and most recently the FedEx Forum, which faces investigation over mismanaged funds. All three projects far exceeded their proposed budgets.

The wild card among defining issues in this election could be Herenton and his handling of MLG&W. His dealing with funds and leadership of this public company have come under fierce fire. The question is not whether MLG&W will be an issue. Rather, just how prominent of a role will it play?

Much of that depends on the decision from Herman Morris, the former President & CEO of MLG&W, who was fired by Herenton during a very public dispute. His decision to run would most likely push the handling of MLG&W to the forefront.

Even more, the prospect of a Morris candidacy creates not only the most interesting storyline of the race, but also possibly the most interesting candidate of the race.

“It is time we start looking beyond superficial issues when deciding our leaders,” Morris says. “We have to stop voting for the same old thing.”

The idea of new faces and new leadership at City Hall plays well into the Herman Morris persona. Morris stands as the only major potential candidate to have never served in elected office. There are two sides to that coin that could flip either way.

As federal indictments of elected officials continue to mount, public approval of career politicians has reached an all-time low. Morris offers a strong contrast to candidates like Herenton and Chumney, more reserved in demeanor and more cautious with words. He also serves as the one candidate that can rival any other in fundraising contacts.

The argument that Morris stands untested seems shortsighted. Morris knows the glare of public service, having served both as President of the Memphis Chamber and President & CEO of MLG&W. The real question surrounding Morris is whether he has the fight to oppose the coming list of aggressive candidates vying for a piece of the spotlight.

“I grew up in this city,” Morris says. “I am a product of this school system. I look around this city and I see a crime and forgotten neighborhoods. Memphis at one time was a clean city. These are troubling trends that must come to an end.”

As for MLG&W, Morris is keeping his feelings close to his heart. “There were many talented individuals at MLG&W that got looked over. I am more disappointed that they never got their chance. I have my opinion of what happened there. I will leave things at that.”

Over the coming months, rumors and rhetoric will rise. Political pundits, who are already handicapping the potentials of this race, will begin factoring race, gender, and political backgrounds with each new candidate.

In the end though, the biggest factor of this race will be the one factor only Herenton can control – himself.

“The biggest issue of this race will not be crime or education, or even race,” Thaddeus Matthews told me over a cup of coffee. “The biggest issue of this race, the only person standing in the way of Willie Herenton and a fifth term, will be Willie Herenton himself.”

That is how it begins.